Last week's main event was already evident from the title of this news edition. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed its decision on the spot bitcoin ETF application submitted by ARK Invest. This announcement was made by the regulator on the deadline day, Friday, August 13.

Source: Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart

The SEC's postponement is accompanied by a question to the public. In its application, ARK asserts that the bitcoin market is sufficiently resistant to price manipulation, that the trading volume on the intended exchange (CME) is sufficiently high, and that the surveillance agreement with Coinbase effectively combats market abuse. But is this truly the case? The SEC is eagerly awaiting answers to this pressing question from external sources.

Incorporating such a consultation period isn't unusual, and the same goes for choosing a delay. The key question remains: will the delay result in rejection?

Former SEC lawyer John Reed Stark believes it might. In the context of prior applications, the SEC addressed the aforementioned questions internally, dismissing those applications. Stark believes these issues persist to this day. He opines that the SEC's rigid stance will only change if a Republican president takes charge in the White House.

On the other hand, analysts from Bloomberg hold a different view and estimate a 65% chance of approval. Never before has this probability been so high. They emphasize that the SEC's decision to postpone doesn't necessarily reflect the eventual outcome of the application process. ARK's next decision point is slated for November 11. Other applicants are set to receive updates in early September. Most analysts predict that the SEC will opt for another delay at that time.